ESP 16%
FRA 12%
ARG 12%
BRA 11%
ENG 10%Areas of focus
Recent work by Zach
World Cup 2026 Power Rankings: Spain or Argentina?
Our World Cup 2026 knockout power rankings: Spain are the team most likely to win it, edging reigning champions Argentina after the final finished level at 0-0.
Switzerland at World Cup 2026: Grit, Penalties, Last Eight
Switzerland reached the World Cup 2026 quarter-finals, winning Group B and beating Algeria and Colombia before Argentina ended their run on penalties.
Golden Ball 2026: Back Messi Over Mbappé's Boot
The 2026 World Cup Golden Ball follows the deepest run, not the top scorer: back finalist Lionel Messi and fade Golden Boot winner Kylian Mbappé.
Messi Free Kick 2026: Base Rates Beat the Hype
The Messi free-kick market on Polymarket resolved No: he finished World Cup 2026 with 8 goals but not one direct free kick. Base-rate math beat the hype.
World Cup 2026: Ranking the Favourites Who Fell Short
From Brazil's last-16 exit to Germany's shootout collapse, here is how World Cup 2026 humbled its heavyweight favourites, ranked by the scale of each fall.
Argentina World Cup 2026: Knockout Run to the Final
Argentina reached the World Cup 2026 final, grinding past Egypt, Switzerland and England on Messi's last dance. Inside their knockout run and how far they can go.
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