ESP 16.6%
FRA 16.1%
POR 10.6%
ENG 9.7%
ARG 7.9%What Are Prediction Markets?
A prediction marketis a marketplace where you trade shares in the outcome of a future event: who wins an election, where inflation lands, or who lifts the 2026 World Cup. Each share’s price sits between 1¢ and 99¢ and moves with the crowd’s live estimate of how likely that outcome is. In short: the price is the probability.
How prediction markets work
Every outcome has a share that settles at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. If a team trades at 40¢ to win the World Cup, the market is pricing in roughly a 40% chance. You buy shares in the outcome you expect; if you’re right, each share is worth $1 at settlement. Because the market runs continuously, you can also sell your shares at the current price at any time, locking in a gain or cutting a loss before the event even finishes. That makes it far more like trading than a one-and-done forecast.
Why the price equals the probability
Prices are set by supply and demand among traders putting real money behind their views. If an outcome is underpriced, traders buy until the price rises; if it’s overpriced, they sell. The result is a single number that aggregates everyone’s information into a live, money-weighted probability, which is why prediction markets often track reality more closely than polls or individual pundits, and update the instant news breaks.
What can you trade?
Markets span politics, economics, culture and sport. For the 2026 World Cup that means markets such as:
- Tournament winner: see live title odds and our predictions.
- Group winners: each group.
- Top scorer: the Golden Boot race.
- Single matches: every matchup across the schedule.
How to start
The largest prediction market is Polymarket. Create an account, add funds, and trade the outcomes you have a view on. New users who deposit $20 currently get a $50 trading bonus with the Polymarket promo code. New to it? Read our step-by-step guide to trading the 2026 World Cup on Polymarket.
Frequently asked
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a marketplace where you trade shares in the outcome of a future event: an election, an economic number, or who wins the 2026 World Cup. The share price moves between 1¢ and 99¢ and reflects the crowd's live estimate of how likely that outcome is.
How do prediction market prices work?
Each outcome has a share that settles at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn't. So a price of 65¢ implies the market thinks there's roughly a 65% chance of that outcome. As new information arrives, traders buy and sell and the price, and the implied probability, moves.
Are prediction markets accurate?
They are often more accurate than polls or pundits because prices aggregate the money-backed views of many traders, and update instantly. The price is a real-time, crowd-sourced probability rather than a single forecaster's opinion.
How do I start trading on a prediction market?
The most popular prediction market is Polymarket. You create an account, add funds, and trade shares in the outcomes you have a view on. New users who deposit $20 currently get a $50 trading bonus.
18+. Polymarket is a prediction market; availability and terms vary by location. This page contains an affiliate link to Polymarket.