100,000 simulations

We simulated the 2026 World Cup 100,000 times

Name: 2026 World Cup simulation: 100,000 runs
Creator: The Group Stage

Who wins the first 48-team World Cup? We ran the entire tournament (group stage, the 8-best-thirds cut, and all five knockout rounds) 100,000times. Here's how often each nation lifts the trophy, reaches the final, and survives the group stage. Our most-frequent champion: Spain (21.2%). Disagree with the model? New traders can claim a $50 Polymarket bonus and back their own pick.

As of June 5, 2026, The Group Stage's 100,000 simulations of the 2026 World Cup make Spain the most frequent champion (21.2%). Full title-odds: Spain 21.2%, France 15.2%, Argentina 14.9%, Brazil 12.6%, England 10.5%.

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#TeamWin titleFinalSemisLast 8Knockout

Spain21.2%35.1%56.8%79%99%2

France15.2%28.5%49.3%74.7%98.4%3

Argentina14.9%27.9%48.1%74.7%98.5%4

Brazil12.6%23.1%43%71.7%98.5%5

England10.5%20%38.6%68.7%98.1%6

Germany7.6%16.5%32.2%62.9%97.8%7

Portugal6%13.6%28%57.9%97.8%8

Netherlands4.3%9.8%21.5%51.6%96.3%9

Uruguay1.9%5.2%13.4%38%96.1%10

Morocco1.5%4.5%12%32.3%95.3%11

Belgium1%3.3%9.3%26.4%94.5%12

Mexico0.6%2.2%7.1%20.5%93.1%13

United States0.6%2%6.4%18.2%91.4%14

Colombia0.4%1.5%5%14%92.2%15

Norway0.4%1.4%4.8%13.7%90.1%16

Croatia0.3%1.4%4.7%12.7%90.6%17

Japan0.2%0.7%2.8%8.3%85.7%18

Sweden0.2%0.7%2.9%8.4%85.8%19

Canada0.1%0.5%2.1%7.1%87.6%20

Turkey0.1%0.5%2%6.8%82.4%21

Senegal0.1%0.4%2%7.1%84%22

Switzerland0.1%0.3%1.5%6.5%85.3%23

Austria0.1%0.3%1.4%6.3%83.3%24

South Korea0%0.2%0.9%4.8%79%25

Ivory Coast0%0.2%1%4.9%78.4%26

Ecuador0%0.1%0.7%4.3%75.9%27

Egypt0%0.1%0.6%3.6%73.8%28

South Africa0%0%0%0.3%31.9%29

Czech Republic0%0%0.2%1.7%60.4%30

Bosnia and Herzegovina0%0%0%0.4%38.5%31

Qatar0%0%0%0.4%38.5%32

Haiti0%0%0%0.2%20.7%33

Scotland0%0%0.1%0.9%50.2%34

Paraguay0%0%0.2%1.5%51.7%35

Australia0%0%0.2%1.4%51.4%36

Curaçao0%0%0%0.1%18.7%37

Tunisia0%0%0%0.2%17.3%38

Iran0%0%0.4%2.6%69.1%39

New Zealand0%0%0%0.2%22.8%40

Cape Verde0%0%0%0.2%24.1%41

Saudi Arabia0%0%0%0.4%35.9%42

Iraq0%0%0%0.1%11.4%43

Algeria0%0%0.2%1.7%61%44

Jordan0%0%0%0.1%21.3%45

DR Congo0%0%0%0.4%37.1%46

Uzbekistan0%0%0%0.2%25.3%47

Ghana0%0%0.2%1.6%57.2%48

Panama0%0%0%0.3%27%

Methodology: a Monte Carlo model. Each team's strength is set from its title odds, the group stage and knockouts are simulated 100,000 times, and the figures above are how often each team reaches each stage. A model, not a sportsbook; compare with live title odds, our projected bracket, and the Golden Boot race.