ESP 16%
FRA 12%
ARG 12%
BRA 11%
ENG 10%
Tournament outlook
As of July 20, 2026, Japan have a 1.5% market-implied probability of winning the 2026 World Cup (+6567), the 17th-best odds of any team, based on live model estimates.
Japan beat Germany and Spain in 2022 and have only deepened their European talent pool since. They are many analysts' pick to finally crack the quarter-finals.
Managed by Hajime Moriyasu, Japan head into the 2026 World Cup in Group F, where they face Netherlands, Sweden, Tunisia. With a FIFA ranking of #18, expectations are calibrated accordingly, but tournament football has a way of rewriting the script.
Key players
Takefusa Kubo, commonly known as Take Kubo, is a Japanese professional footballer who plays as a right winger for La Liga club Real Sociedad and the Japan national team.
Kaoru Mitoma is a Japanese professional footballer who plays as a left winger for Premier League club Brighton & Hove Albion and the Japan national team.
Wataru Endo is a Japanese professional footballer who plays as a defensive midfielder for Premier League club Liverpool and captains the Japan national team.
Strengths & weaknesses
▲ Strengths
- Slick technical play
- Pressing
- European-based depth
▼ Weaknesses
- Finishing big chances
- Set-piece defending
How far can Japan go?
Japan have the quality to escape the group and trouble seeded sides. A quarter-final would be a strong tournament. Follow our matchup previews and live odds throughout the group stage to track their progress.
