Favourites in Trouble: World Cup 2026's Fallen Giants

Four of the pre-tournament top-eight favourites are already out of World Cup 2026: Brazil, Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal have all been eliminated before the semi-finals, a cull of heavyweights that has reshaped the entire bracket. Between them they carried pre-tournament title odds of 11%, 8%, 6% and 7%, and not one of them reached the last eight.

The carnage has been concentrated in the first two knockout rounds. Germany and the Netherlands, ranked FIFA #10 and #7, both went out on penalties in the round of 32. Brazil, the highest-rated of the fallen at FIFA #6, and Portugal, FIFA #5, at least reached the round of 16 before their exits. The net effect is the same: half of the sides most bookmakers fancied for the trophy are watching from home.

This piece runs through the giants who have crashed out, why they fell, and which supposed contenders are still standing but sweating. It is a tournament that has rewarded ruthlessness in tight margins, and the teams that could not find it, however glittering their squads, have paid the price.

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How did Germany and the Netherlands both go out on penalties?

The round of 32 claimed two of Europe's most storied nations in the cruellest fashion. Germany won Group E with six points and a +6 goal difference, looking every bit the class of a wide-open pool, then drew 1-1 with Paraguay and lost the shootout 4-3. For a nation built on penalty-shootout mythology, it was a jarring way to fall, and it ended the tournament for a side many had backed to ride the Wirtz and Musiala generation deep.

The Netherlands suffered an almost identical fate. Oranje topped Group F comfortably with seven points and a +6 difference, but a 1-1 stalemate with Morocco went to spot-kicks and they lost 3-2. Morocco, the 2022 semi-finalists, once again proved they thrive in knockout chaos, and Koeman's pragmatic side had no answer once the game turned into a lottery.

Both exits underline a theme of this World Cup: group-stage dominance has guaranteed nothing. Germany and the Netherlands were two of only a handful of teams to post a +6 group difference, yet neither survived their first knockout test. Paraguay, ranked FIFA #40, and Morocco, FIFA #8, showed that organisation and nerve from twelve yards can undo far more expensively assembled squads.

The symbolism stings for both federations. Germany's revival under a new generation was supposed to announce itself here; instead it fizzled out at the first hurdle. And the Netherlands, so often bridesmaids at major tournaments, found yet another agonising way to depart. Morocco went on to reach the quarter-finals before losing 2-0 to France, so at least the Dutch were beaten by genuine dark horses.

Why did Brazil's bid for a sixth star collapse against Norway?

Brazil arrived as the most fancied of the fallen, at FIFA #6 with 11% title odds, and Ancelotti's Seleção looked the part in topping Group C with seven points. They then edged Japan 2-1 in the round of 32 to set up a last-16 tie with Norway that, on paper, they were expected to win. Instead they lost 1-2, and the dream of a sixth world title was over.

Norway were the story, not the accident. Erling Haaland, who has scored seven goals at this tournament, spearheaded a side that had already stunned Ivory Coast in the previous round and carried real momentum. Backed by Martin Odegaard's creativity, Norway's blend of power and directness overwhelmed a Brazil defence that had looked assured in the group stage. Vinicius Junior's four goals made him Brazil's standout, but the collective could not respond once they fell behind.

For Brazil, the inquest will centre on knockout fragility. This was a team with the individual talent to win the whole thing, yet it lacked the ruthless edge to see off an opponent ranked FIFA #31. Norway's pre-tournament odds of 6.1% now look like a bargain, and they remain alive while the five-time champions have gone home.

It is the kind of result that defines a World Cup. Brazil's exit removed one of the tournament's marquee names and blew the bottom half of the draw wide open, handing Norway and others a genuine path deep into the competition that few would have predicted when the groups were drawn.

Did Portugal and Ronaldo's farewell end too soon?

Portugal's tournament promised a fairytale send-off and delivered an anticlimax. Ranked FIFA #5 with 7% title odds, and widely billed as Cristiano Ronaldo's likely final World Cup, they finished second in Group K behind Colombia, then beat Croatia 2-1 in the round of 32 to keep the story alive. The last-16 meeting with Spain, however, ended it: a 0-0 sort of afternoon settled by a single goal, Spain winning 1-0.

Falling to the FIFA #2 side and Euro 2024 winners is no disgrace, but Portugal will feel they had the squad to go further. A golden generation blending experience and youth mustered too little against a Spain team that has looked ominously controlled throughout, keeping clean sheets and grinding out results. For Ronaldo, in what was widely expected to be his last dance, a round-of-16 exit is a muted farewell.

Portugal's departure completes the set of fallen European heavyweights. Alongside Germany and the Netherlands, they are a third UEFA side ranked in the world's top ten to exit before the quarter-finals. Croatia, beaten by Portugal and themselves FIFA #11, also went out in the round of 32, meaning Modric's golden generation bowed out at the same stage. The old guard of European football has been thinned dramatically.

Which fallen favourites had the highest expectations?

Ranking the eliminated contenders by their pre-tournament title odds shows just how much quality has already left the building. Brazil headed the fallen at 11%, followed by Germany at 8%, Portugal at 7% and the Netherlands at 6%. Add co-hosts Mexico, out 2-3 to England in the round of 16 despite a home run, and Colombia, beaten on penalties by Switzerland, and the list of departed names is startling.

What links them is not a lack of talent but an inability to convert dominance into knockout victories. Mexico had topped Group A with a perfect nine points and a +6 difference, the strongest group return of any host, yet still fell in the last 16. Colombia won Group K and could not survive a shootout against a Swiss side ranked below them. In a tournament of fine margins, reputation has counted for nothing.

The chart below lays out the scale of the upset by pre-tournament title odds. Collectively, these six sides represented a huge share of the pre-tournament market, and every one of them is now out. It is the clearest evidence yet that World Cup 2026 has been an equaliser, punishing any team that failed to match its billing with end-product.

Which favourites are still alive but sweating?

Not every big name has fallen, but several have survived on frayed nerves. Reigning champions Argentina, second favourites at 18.8%, have laboured despite Lionel Messi's tournament-topping eight goals. After cruising through Group J with nine points, they were held 1-1 by debutants Cape Verde in the round of 32 and then needed a 3-2 win to see off Egypt in the last 16. The scorelines betray a defence that has looked far more vulnerable than a champion's should.

Belgium and Switzerland are the other survivors living dangerously. Belgium, transitional at FIFA #9 and 2.2%, were held 2-2 by Senegal in the round of 32 before roaring back with a 4-1 dismantling of the United States, a result that suggests they are finding form at the right time. Switzerland, meanwhile, have made a habit of the shootout, edging Colombia 4-3 on penalties after a 0-0 in the round of 16 having also seen off Algeria. Their 2% odds reflect a team winning ugly.

Then there are the outright overachievers keeping the fallen giants company in memory only. Norway, at 6.1%, look the pick of them after knocking out Brazil, while Senegal and Cape Verde carry Africa's banner as genuine surprises still in contention. Ismaila Sarr's four goals have driven Senegal, and Cape Verde's mere presence at this stage is a fairytale for the smallest CAF nation left standing.

The contrast at the top is stark. France, at 38.6% and FIFA #1, are the one elite favourite in complete control, already through to the semi-finals after a 2-0 win over Morocco, with Kylian Mbappe's eight goals and Ousmane Dembele's five leading the line. Spain (16.9%) and England (16%), the latter powered by Harry Kane's six goals and Jude Bellingham's four, have also advanced without alarms. The favourites' cull has been real, but it has spared the very top of the market.

What does the favourites' cull mean for the run-in?

The elimination of Brazil, Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal has redrawn the map of World Cup 2026. With four of the top eight gone, the trophy is now realistically shared between a smaller elite led by France, plus a chasing pack of survivors and dark horses who have earned their place through the very ruthlessness the fallen lacked. France's serene progress to the semi-finals makes them the clear team to beat.

For the neutrals, the door is ajar for a genuinely unexpected finalist. Norway have already proven they can topple a giant, Senegal and Cape Verde are flying Africa's flag deep into the knockouts, and Switzerland keep finding ways to win. None would have been many people's pick before kick-off, yet all remain while more celebrated names have gone. That is the beauty of a tournament that has refused to follow the script.

The lesson from the fallen is simple and brutal. Group-stage swagger, glittering squads and lofty rankings have counted for little; what has mattered is composure in the moments that decide knockout football. Germany and the Netherlands learned it from twelve yards, Brazil learned it against Norway's power, and Portugal learned it against Spain's control. As the quarter-finals play out, the surviving favourites have been warned: at World Cup 2026, reputation guarantees nothing.