Round of 16 Preview: Who Advances at World Cup 2026

France head into the Round of 16 as the team to beat, priced at 35.5% to lift the trophy, more than double second-favourites Argentina (17.2%) and comfortably clear of reigning European champions Spain (12.3%). Of the 18 sides still standing, those three form a clear top tier, with England (7.7%), Brazil (6.2%) and Portugal (6.1%) leading the chasing pack.

The knockout rounds have already delivered carnage. The Round of 32 wiped out two of the pre-tournament heavyweights, and the bracket now looks very different from the one the bookmakers drew up in June. What follows is a tier-by-tier guide to who is left, which paths have opened up, and who is best placed to advance to the last eight.

Two of the 16 Round of 32 ties, Belgium against Senegal and Argentina against Cape Verde, finished level and remain unresolved, which is why 18 teams are still officially alive. Everywhere else, the picture is settled, and the survivors range from the game's aristocrats to a clutch of genuine outsiders still writing their own stories.

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Which favourites are still standing?

The elite have largely done their job. France were the most emphatic, dismantling Sweden 3-0 with Ousmane Dembélé (4 goals) and Kylian Mbappé (6) in ruthless form. On 35.5% they are the runaway favourites, and their Round of 32 performance did nothing to dent that status.

Spain, Euro 2024 winners and ranked second in the world, brushed aside Austria 3-0 to underline why they sit third in the title market at 12.3%. England, under Thomas Tuchel, ground out a 2-1 win over DR Congo, with Harry Kane's 5 tournament goals keeping the Golden Boot race alive. At 7.7%, the Three Lions are the leading European challenger behind the top three.

Brazil (6.2%) needed a 2-1 win over a stubborn Japan, while Portugal (6.1%) edged Croatia 2-1 to end Luka Modrić's golden generation and send Cristiano Ronaldo's side through. Argentina, chasing back-to-back titles and second favourites at 17.2%, are the notable loose end: their tie with Cape Verde finished 1-1 and is still to be settled, even as Lionel Messi's 7 goals lead the tournament.

The top six in the market are separated by a chasm from the rest, and the chart below shows just how lopsided the title race remains even at the knockout stage.

What were the shocks that blew the bracket open?

The Round of 32 produced two seismic upsets. Germany, rated at 8% and one of the pre-tournament dark horses on the back of Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala, were knocked out 4-3 on penalties by Paraguay after a 1-1 draw. It was the single biggest scalp of the tournament and vaulted Alfaro's pragmatic Paraguay, third in Group D, into the last 16.

The Netherlands were the other casualty. Rated at 6% and boasting the world's seventh-ranked side, the Oranje were eliminated on penalties by Morocco, losing the shootout 3-2 after another 1-1 stalemate. For Morocco, 2022 semi-finalists and now among the most dangerous outsiders at 2.6%, it was proof their run four years ago was no fluke.

The upsets did not stop there. Ivory Coast, the reigning African champions, were beaten 2-1 by Erling Haaland's Norway, while Sweden's much-hyped strike pairing of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres was blanked in a 3-0 defeat to France. Add Japan and Croatia to the fallen, and half a dozen seeded or fancied sides are already watching from home.

The cumulative effect is a bracket with unexpected gaps. With Germany and the Netherlands removed, sections of the draw that looked forbidding a fortnight ago now offer a clearer route, and several mid-ranked survivors will fancy their chances of a run they had no right to expect.

Which two ties are still to be settled?

Not every Round of 32 tie has a winner yet. Belgium and Senegal played out a thrilling 2-2 draw, and the tie remains live, with both nations still listed among the survivors. It is a fascinating clash of a transitional but talented Belgium (1.2%) against an African powerhouse in Senegal (1.2%) whose Ismaïla Sarr has already scored 4 times.

The second unresolved tie is arguably the tournament's most dramatic subplot: Argentina 1-1 Cape Verde. The Blue Sharks, ranked 69th and playing at their first World Cup, went toe to toe with the reigning champions and refused to buckle. Even level with Argentina, Cape Verde have already delivered one of the great debutant stories of 2026.

Both ties matter enormously for the shape of the last 16. Argentina's 17.2% title rating assumes they get through, and Messi's tournament-leading 7 goals make them favourites to do so, but nothing is guaranteed against a side that has matched them once. Belgium against Senegal, meanwhile, is a coin-flip that could send either a European name or an African contender deep into the knockouts.

Which outsiders can go deeper?

Beyond the giants, a cluster of survivors carry real threat. Morocco (2.6%) are the standout, having already eliminated the Netherlands and carrying the belief of a semi-final side. Their blend of defensive steel and knockout nous makes them the outsider nobody wants to face.

Norway (1.7%) are the other side trending upwards. Haaland's 5 goals sit joint-third in the scoring charts, and with Martin Ødegaard pulling the strings, their 2-1 defeat of Ivory Coast showed they can win ugly as well as pretty. Paraguay, fresh from stunning Germany, have nothing to lose and the kind of low-block resilience that travels well in one-off knockout games.

Further down the odds, Canada (0.3%), Egypt (0.3%) and Cape Verde are the romantics' picks. Mohamed Salah's Egypt outlasted Australia 4-2 on penalties, while Canada's 1-0 win over South Africa kept the co-hosts' fairytale alive. None are expected to win the trophy, but the Round of 32 proved that expectation counts for little once the knockouts begin.

The chart below lays out the title odds of the leading outsiders still in the hunt, a reminder that the gap between a plucky run and genuine contention is wider than the drama suggests.

How are the co-hosts faring?

All three host nations are still standing, a significant boost for a tournament staged across Canada, Mexico and the United States. Mexico have been the pick of the trio, winning Group A with 9 points and a +6 goal difference before a composed 2-0 win over Ecuador, with Julián Quiñones (3 goals) leading the line. At 3.4%, they are the highest-rated of the hosts.

The United States, under Mauricio Pochettino, topped Group D on 6 points and eased past Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 in the Round of 32. At 2.5%, the young American side is quietly building momentum and will feel the draw has opened up favourably with Germany and the Netherlands gone.

Canada complete the set. Winners over South Africa 1-0, Christine Sinclair's successors have ridden their elite pace to the last 16 despite modest 0.3% odds. For a nation with a point to prove, simply reaching this stage on home soil is a statement, and their knockout survival keeps the host storyline alive across all three countries.

Who advances? Our verdict

The safest predictions remain the obvious ones. France, at 35.5%, look the most complete team in the tournament and should advance comfortably, with Mbappé and Dembélé giving them a cutting edge no survivor can match. Spain's control and Portugal's edge make both strong bets to progress, while England's Kane-led resilience should be enough against most of the field.

Among the outsiders, Morocco are the pick to spring another surprise. Having already taken down the Netherlands, they have the experience and defensive discipline to trouble anyone, and 2.6% may yet prove generous. Norway, buoyed by Haaland's goals, are the other outsider we back to reach the quarter-finals.

The great unknowns are the two unresolved ties. Argentina's pedigree and Messi's form make them favourites to see off Cape Verde, but the Blue Sharks have already shown they will not go quietly. Belgium against Senegal is genuinely too close to call, a 2-2 thriller that could tip either way.

Our headline verdict: expect France, Spain, England, Brazil and Portugal to advance, Mexico and the United States to carry host hopes into the quarters, and Morocco to be the outsider that refuses to leave. The Round of 16 will thin the field, but on current form the trophy still runs through Les Bleus.