Favourites in Trouble: 2026's Biggest Underachievers

The World Cup 2026 favourites who ended up in trouble read like a roll-call of European heavyweights: Germany and the Netherlands both crashed out in the Round of 32 on penalties, Brazil fell in the Round of 16 to Norway, Portugal followed them out at the same stage against Spain, and even world No.1 France, the 12% co-favourites, were beaten 2-0 by Spain in the semis and then hammered 6-4 by England in the third-place play-off. Of the pre-tournament top favourites, only Spain and Argentina reached the final.

That is a brutal cull of pedigree. Add up the pre-tournament title odds of the sides that failed to reach the final and you have Brazil (11%), England (10%), Germany (8%), Portugal (7%), Netherlands (6%) and Belgium (3%), plus a France team that carried the tournament's Golden Boot winner in Kylian Mbappe and still finished fourth. Collectively these were the teams the market expected to define the business end of the competition.

This is not a story of narrow misfortune for every one of them. Some, like Germany and the Netherlands, were genuinely humbled early. Others, like France and England, went deep but still fell short of the billing that came with being genuine contenders. Below we rank the underachievers by the gap between expectation and reality, and explain what went wrong for each.

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Which favourites went out earliest?

Germany and the Netherlands supplied the two biggest shocks of the knockout rounds, and they arrived early. Both were top-10 FIFA nations, both topped their groups, and both were dumped out in the Round of 32 by lower-ranked opposition on penalties. Germany, the 8% fifth favourites and world No.10, won Group E with a +6 goal difference and looked like the class of a wide-open pool, only to be beaten 3-4 on spot-kicks by Paraguay after a 1-1 draw.

The Netherlands story was almost identical in shape and arguably more damaging. Koeman's Oranje, ranked seventh and priced at 6%, won Group F ahead of Japan and Sweden, then ran into Morocco and lost 2-3 on penalties following a 1-1 draw. For a nation that reached the last four of the previous global tournaments in living memory, going out in the first knockout round to a side ranked 34th was a serious failure to launch.

The common thread is instructive. Neither Germany nor the Netherlands actually lost a knockout match in 90 minutes; both were undone by the fine margins of a shootout. But favourites are supposed to close out exactly these games, and being unable to break down Paraguay and Morocco over two hours told its own story. When you carry 8% and 6% title odds, exiting at the Round of 32 is the definition of underachievement.

Did Brazil underachieve?

Brazil were the second favourites at 11%, ranked sixth in the world, and carried the weight of a nation still hunting a sixth star. Ancelotti's Seleccao topped Group C with a +6 goal difference and edged Japan 2-1 in the Round of 32, with Vinicius Junior among the scorers on his way to four goals for the tournament. Then Norway happened.

Erling Haaland's Norway beat Brazil 2-1 in the Round of 16, ending the Seleccao's run at the first serious hurdle. It was a result that flipped the pre-tournament pecking order on its head: a nation making up for years of absence eliminating one of the favourites, with Haaland's goals (he finished on seven) proving decisive. For Brazil, a Round-of-16 exit represents another tournament that ended well short of the final, extending a long wait for a return to the summit of the world game.

The manner of it stung. Brazil had the talent and the seeding, but were out-fought by a Norway side that simply wanted it more in the decisive moments. When you are the 11% second favourites, losing to a team you were expected to beat is exactly the kind of underachievement this article is about.

Portugal and Belgium: the contenders who flattered to deceive

Portugal arrived as 7% contenders and the world's fifth-ranked side, with what was billed as a golden squad in Cristiano Ronaldo's likely final World Cup. They finished second in Group K behind Colombia, then ran into Spain in the Round of 16 and lost 1-0. For a team of that pedigree, and with the emotional weight of a Ronaldo farewell, bowing out in the last 16 without landing a glove on the eventual finalists was a quiet disappointment rather than the send-off they wanted.

Belgium, the 3% ninth-ranked side, went a round further but were no more convincing. A transitional Belgium squeaked out of Group G with just five points, survived a 2-2 thriller against Senegal on their way through the Round of 32, and then edged the United States 4-1 in the last 16. Their run ended in the quarter-finals, beaten 2-1 by Spain. Reaching the last eight is a respectable ceiling for a side in flux, but Belgium never looked like the team that once topped the world rankings.

Both illustrate a softer form of underachievement: not a humiliation, but a failure to convert obvious talent into a genuine challenge. Portugal and Belgium had the individuals to trouble anyone; neither found the collective conviction to do it when it mattered.

France: the world No.1 who finished fourth

France were the tournament's most complete favourites on paper: world No.1, 12% title odds, and blessed with Kylian Mbappe, who duly won the Golden Boot with 10 goals. They swept through Group I with a maximum nine points and a +8 goal difference, brushed aside Sweden 3-0, edged Paraguay 1-0 and beat Morocco 2-0 to reach the semi-finals. For three rounds they looked every inch the machine the odds implied.

Then the wheels came off. Spain beat France 2-0 in the semi-final, shutting down Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele (six goals) when it counted, and the third-place play-off descended into chaos as England won a remarkable 6-4 shootout of a match. Finishing fourth, and conceding four goals in a consolation game, is not the campaign a world No.1 with the tournament's leading scorer is supposed to have.

France belong in this list precisely because expectation was so high. Reaching the semi-finals would be a triumph for most nations, but for the No.1 side priced level with Argentina, falling to Spain and then leaking goals to England left them among the biggest names to end the tournament without a trophy. Mbappe's individual brilliance could not paper over a collective that stalled at the last-four wall.

Who justified their billing?

The counterpoint to all this underachievement is short: Spain and Argentina. The two shortest-priced favourites at 16% and 12% were the only pre-tournament heavyweights to reach the final, meeting in a 0-0 showpiece after each navigated a knockout gauntlet that swallowed nearly every rival. Spain, the Euro 2024 winners and the team to beat, knocked out Portugal, Belgium and France on their run. Argentina, the reigning champions, saw off Egypt, Switzerland and England, with Lionel Messi (eight goals) rolling back the years.

That both survived is a reminder that the odds were not wrong about who the best teams were, only about how many of the chasing pack would keep pace. The 16% and 12% favourites delivered; it was the 6% to 11% band, Brazil, Germany, Netherlands and Portugal, that collapsed most spectacularly. The favourites in trouble were the second tier of contenders, not the very top.

For the fallen giants, the post-mortems will differ. Germany and the Netherlands will rue penalty shootouts and blunt knockout football. Brazil will point to a Norway side that outran them. Portugal and Belgium will wonder how squads of that quality mustered so little. And France, for all Mbappe's goals, will ask how the world No.1 ended up conceding four in a fourth-place play-off. What unites them is simple: at World Cup 2026, being a favourite guaranteed nothing at all.