Norway and Switzerland: World Cup 2026's Last Dark Horses

The two genuine dark horses still standing at World Cup 2026 are Norway and Switzerland. Everyone else left in the draw is a heavyweight: Spain (58.2% title odds), England (22.7%) and Argentina (19.7%) are the three most-backed teams in the tournament, so the outsider label now belongs to just a pair of mid-ranked European sides who have quietly bulldozed their way into the last stages.

Norway, ranked 31st by FIFA and rated at only 2% before a ball was kicked, arrived with Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard and a reputation for flattering to deceive. Switzerland, 19th in the world and priced at a modest 1%, arrived with no stars and no fanfare. Both are still here, and both have already knocked out sides that were supposed to be miles above them.

This piece looks at exactly how far each can realistically go from here. The short version: the ceiling is high enough to dream about, but the road runs straight through Spain, England and Argentina, and that is a very different proposition to the group-stage minnows they have swept aside so far.

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Who still counts as a dark horse in the last stages?

A dark horse is a team achieving more than its ranking and its odds said it should. By that measure, the field has thinned dramatically. Of the seven names left in the reckoning, three (Spain, England, Argentina) are top-four FIFA sides and pre-tournament favourites, so their runs are expectation met, not expectation defied.

That leaves Norway and Switzerland as the only outsiders punching above their weight. Norway's 2% and Switzerland's 1% title odds are a fraction of Spain's commanding 58.2%, and both sit outside the world's top 15. Reaching the business end of a 48-team World Cup from that starting point is precisely what dark-horse status is meant to describe.

The gulf is stark when you line the numbers up. Spain are more than half the market on their own; England and Argentina are the only other teams in double digits. Norway and Switzerland are rounding errors by comparison, which is exactly why their survival is the most compelling underdog story left in the competition.

It is worth remembering how brutal the knockouts have been to the other pre-tournament outsiders. Morocco, semi-finalists in 2022 and rated at 3.5%, reached the quarter-finals before France beat them 2-0. The bracket has been a graveyard for romance, which makes the two survivors all the more notable.

Norway: how far can Haaland's outsiders go?

Norway are the more thrilling of the two survivors, and the reason is obvious: Erling Haaland has 7 goals, a total bettered only by Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi, who share the Golden Boot lead on 8. Add Martin Odegaard's craft and you have an outsider with genuine star power at both ends of the pitch.

Their route has been the stuff of headlines. After finishing runners-up to France in a punishing Group I, Norway beat Ivory Coast 2-1 in the round of 32, then produced the shock of the tournament by knocking out Brazil 2-1 in the round of 16. Ending the Seleccao's hunt for a sixth star is the kind of scalp that turns a decent side into a genuine dark horse.

In the quarter-final Norway ran England to a 1-1 deadlock, refusing to be overawed by the 22.7% favourites. That performance tells you plenty about their ceiling: a team built to sit deep, stay compact and then unleash Haaland on the counter is a nightmare for anyone in a single knockout game.

The honest limit is that Norway's defensive depth is thinner than their attacking firepower, and the closer they get to the trophy the more they will be asked to control games rather than raid them. But with Haaland in this kind of form, no favourite will fancy drawing them, and a place in the last four is a realistic and deserved aspiration.

Switzerland: the quiet dark horse still standing

Switzerland are the anti-Norway: no superstar, no viral moment, just the relentless efficiency of a side that has made deep runs its habit. Ranked 19th in the world and given only a 1% title chance, they have done what they always do at tournaments, which is refuse to lose.

They topped Group B ahead of co-hosts Canada, then dispatched Algeria 2-0 in the round of 32. The defining night came in the last 16, a goalless 120 minutes against Colombia settled 4-3 on penalties. Grinding out a shootout win over a Copa America finalist rated at 2% is exactly the kind of result that keeps unfashionable teams alive.

In the quarter-final Switzerland held Argentina, the reigning champions and 19.7% second favourites, to a 1-1 scoreline. For a team with no household names to trade blows with Messi's side is a statement of how well-drilled and organised Murat Yakin's men have become.

The trade-off is that Switzerland's low-risk approach limits their upside. They are hard to beat but rarely overwhelming, and against the very best they will need penalties or a single moment to fall their way. That is a slim margin, yet it is precisely how the quiet dark horse has survived this long, and it should not be written off.

The dark horses that already fell

To appreciate how well Norway and Switzerland have done, look at the outsiders who did not make it. Morocco carried the biggest underdog hopes at 3.5%, beat the Netherlands on penalties and dumped out Canada 3-0, but ran into France in the quarter-final and lost 2-0. Their run was excellent, and it still ended a stage earlier than the two survivors.

Paraguay staged one of the group stage's boldest raids, knocking Germany out on penalties in the round of 32 before France ended them 1-0. Egypt rode Mohamed Salah past Australia and pushed the champions hard before Argentina edged a 3-2 thriller in the last 16. Each was a fine story cut short.

Then there were the fairytales. Cape Verde, the smallest nation ever to reach a World Cup, and Senegal, whose Ismaila Sarr scored 4, both lit up the earlier rounds before their runs came to an end. Underdog magic is fragile in a knockout, and the bracket has shown no mercy.

The lesson from those exits is that reaching the last eight, as Norway and Switzerland have, already puts them in rare company. Surviving where Morocco, Paraguay and Egypt could not is an achievement in itself, regardless of what comes next.

How far can the last dark horses realistically go?

The realistic verdict is that a place in the final four is the sensible ceiling for both, and lifting the trophy would be a genuine miracle. Spain have already reached the final by beating France 2-0 in the semi-final, and at 58.2% they are the most dominant favourite this tournament has seen. Getting past that Spain side would be the hardest task in world football right now.

For Norway, the path forward means backing Haaland to conjure the moments that have already accounted for Brazil. If they can nick tight games and let their talisman punish one lapse, a semi-final is well within reach. Beyond that, they would likely need to solve Spain's control of the ball, which is a taller order than out-running anyone on the break.

For Switzerland, the route is even narrower but not impossible: keep it tight, trust the shootout and hope a single set-piece or counter is enough. They have already shown against Colombia and Argentina that they can drag elite teams down to their level, and in knockout football that is a weapon in itself.

So the answer to how far they can go is measured but not dismissive. Norway and Switzerland are unlikely to win World Cup 2026, but both have already outrun their rankings and their odds, and either reaching the final would rank among the great modern underdog stories. In a tournament that has been ruthless to romantics, that they are still standing at all is the story.