World Cup 2026 Favourites: Who Struggled and Crashed Out

Of the ten teams the market backed most strongly before a ball was kicked, only two survived to the World Cup 2026 final: Spain (16% title odds) and Argentina (12%). Everyone else fell short, and several crashed out far earlier than their price suggested. Brazil, Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal were all gone before the quarter-finals, while France and England got to the last four only to be turned away by the eventual finalists.

That is a brutal cull of pedigree. The group stage alone claimed Uruguay, a 4% shot, and the knockouts then systematically dismantled the rest of the elite. By the quarter-final stage the bracket was carrying genuine outsiders in Norway, Switzerland and Cape Verde while the sport's traditional powers queued up for early flights home.

This is the story of the favourites in trouble: who struggled, who were ambushed, and who simply ran out of road. We will work from the earliest exits to the latest, grounding every verdict in the results and the pre-tournament odds that framed expectations.

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Which favourite flopped hardest in the group stage?

Uruguay were the clearest group-stage casualty among the fancied names. Marcelo Bielsa's side arrived ranked 17th in the world with 4% title odds, firmly inside the second tier of contenders, yet they finished third in Group H on two points with a negative goal difference. In a pool headed by Spain's 16% favourites, Uruguay could not even edge debutants Cape Verde, who took second and went on to a historic knockout run.

That failure stands out because so few of the elite actually stumbled before the knockouts. The group draw was kind to most of the big names: Spain, France (9pts) and Argentina (9pts) all swept their sections, England topped Group L, and Germany, the Netherlands and Brazil all came through as winners or qualified comfortably. Uruguay were the exception, a top-20 side that never found rhythm when it mattered.

The contrast with Cape Verde sharpens the point. The Blue Sharks, ranked 69th and a 0.1% novelty before kick-off, outlasted a Celeste side built on high pressing and knockout pedigree. For a nation with Uruguay's history, going home at the first stage while a debutant advanced was the tournament's quietest but most pointed early embarrassment.

Why did Germany and the Netherlands exit at the first knockout hurdle?

Germany and the Netherlands were the biggest names to fall in the round of 32, and both went out in the cruellest fashion: on penalties. Germany, 8% title favourites and ranked 10th, topped Group E with a tidy +6 goal difference, then were held 1-1 by Paraguay and lost the shootout 3-4. For a side billed as the vehicle for a German revival around Florian Wirtz, exiting at the very first knockout game was a heavy blow.

The Netherlands suffered an almost identical fate. Ranked seventh in the world and priced at 6%, Ronald Koeman's Oranje won Group F with +6, only to be stopped 1-1 by Morocco and beaten 2-3 on spot-kicks. Two of the most reliable tournament nations in Europe were therefore eliminated inside the first knockout round, undone by the fine margins of penalties rather than any sustained hammering.

What makes the pair sting is how little separated competence from catastrophe. Both topped their groups, both carried strong squads, and both lost to lower-ranked opponents who simply held their nerve from twelve yards. Paraguay (40th) and Morocco (eighth) earned their wins, but the scorelines underline how a single shootout can erase months of favouritism.

Was Brazil the biggest shock of the knockouts?

Brazil's round-of-16 defeat was the standout upset among the favourites. Carlo Ancelotti's Selecao came in sixth in the FIFA rankings with 11% title odds, the highest of any team outside Spain, and they had negotiated the group stage as Group C winners on +6. Then Norway beat them 1-2, ending a campaign that was supposed to be about hunting a sixth star.

The result reads even more starkly alongside Norway's wider run. Erling Haaland's side, ranked 31st and a 2% outsider, had already edged Ivory Coast in the round of 32 before dumping out Brazil, and they pushed all the way to the quarter-finals before losing to England. Brazil were not beaten by a fluke; they were beaten by a side in form, but a 1-2 loss to the world's 31st-ranked team is the kind of result that defines a tournament's shocks.

For Brazil, the exit continued a troubling modern pattern of falling short of their status. With the talent to reach the last four on paper, going out in the round of 16 represented a clear underachievement against both their ranking and their odds, and it opened the bottom half of the draw for the outsiders who thrived.

How did Portugal and Belgium fall to Spain?

Portugal and Belgium were the two seeded European names undone by Spain's march. Portugal, fifth in the world and 7% favourites in what was framed as Cristiano Ronaldo's likely farewell, won Group K with a healthy +5 but ran straight into La Roja in the round of 16 and lost 0-1. A golden squad that promised a deep run was sent home at the first serious test of the knockouts.

Belgium lasted a round longer but the outcome was the same opponent and the same result. The 9th-ranked, 3% Red Devils edged a dramatic round-of-32 tie with Senegal (2-2, then through) and beat the United States 4-1 in the round of 16 before Spain stopped them 2-1 in the quarter-finals. A transitional Belgium side still carried enough quality to reach the last eight, which flattered their odds, but Spain's class told in the end.

Both exits reinforced the tournament's defining theme: Spain were the wall every pretender eventually hit. Euro 2024 winners and the team to beat all along, they knocked out Austria, Portugal, Belgium and France on their way to the final, systematically removing fancied opponents one tier at a time.

France and England: how far did the heavyweights get?

France and England went furthest of the beaten favourites, both reaching the semi-finals, and both losing to the teams that contested the final. France, the world's top-ranked side at 12%, breezed through Group I with a maximum nine points and +8, then beat Sweden, Paraguay and Morocco before Spain ended them 0-2 in the last four. Kylian Mbappe still finished as the tournament's top scorer on 10 goals, but individual brilliance could not carry Les Bleus past Spain.

England matched that semi-final run under Thomas Tuchel. The 10% fourth-ranked side won Group L, saw off DR Congo, Mexico and Norway, and then lost 1-2 to Argentina in the semi-final. Jude Bellingham (7 goals) and Harry Kane (6) gave them real firepower, but Argentina's experience edged a tight tie and England's 60-year wait goes on.

The pair then met in the third-place match, where England won a remarkable 6-4 shootout of a game to deny France even a bronze medal. For France, losing a semi-final and then conceding six in the third-place playoff capped a strangely deflating end for the pre-tournament number one; for England, beating the world's top-ranked side offered a sliver of consolation but no silverware. Both ultimately join the long list of 2026 favourites who promised more than they delivered.

Which favourites justified their billing?

Only Spain and Argentina truly lived up to their status, and they did so by reaching a goalless final decided beyond 90 minutes. Spain, 16% favourites and ranked second, were the most convincing side throughout, winning Group H and then grinding past Austria, Portugal, Belgium and France without ever losing in open play. Mikel Oyarzabal's five goals typified their balanced, relentless approach.

Argentina, the reigning champions at 12%, took the more scenic route. They won Group J with nine points but were pushed to the brink by Cape Verde (1-1, through on penalties) and Egypt (3-2) before edging Switzerland and England in tight knockout ties. Lionel Messi's eight goals dragged them to the final in what was billed as his last dance.

The chart below sets out the pre-tournament title odds of the big names who did NOT make the final, a reminder of how much favouritism went unrewarded. Between them, Brazil, France, England, Germany, Portugal, the Netherlands and Belgium carried more combined title equity than the two finalists, yet all were watching by the time Spain and Argentina kicked off in the decider.