World Cup 2026 Power Rankings: Most Likely to Win

Spain are the team most likely to win World Cup 2026. After the final against Argentina finished 0-0, the two most decorated sides left standing are the only teams that can still lift the trophy, and on the weight of their knockout run Spain hold the edge. They arrived as the tournament's clearest favourites at 16% title odds and the world's second-ranked side, and nothing in the bracket dented that billing.

Argentina are a hair's breadth behind. The reigning champions are ranked FIFA #3 with pre-tournament odds of 12%, and they have Lionel Messi in the form of his life at eight goals. In a final that refused to yield a goal, the destiny of the trophy rests on the slenderest of margins, but a power ranking is about probability, and Spain's path to this point was the more authoritative.

These rankings measure who is best placed to win it, not simply who is still involved. That means Spain and Argentina occupy the top two rungs, with the beaten semi-finalists, France and England, and the quarter-final dark horses, Norway and Switzerland, ranked behind on what their runs proved rather than what they can now change.

Ad

Why Spain top the knockout power rankings

Spain's route to the final was the most complete of any side. They won Group H with seven points, then dismantled the knockouts in the manner of genuine champions: 3-0 against Austria, 1-0 past Portugal, 2-1 over Belgium in the quarter-final, and a commanding 2-0 defeat of France in the semi. That is four straight wins in regulation, with no penalty lottery required, the sign of a team in control of its own fate.

The 2-0 win over France was the statement result of the entire competition. France entered the semi-final ranked world number one and boasting the tournament's leading scorer, yet Spain smothered them and won comfortably. Beating the pre-tournament favourites at their own game, on the biggest stage before the final, is precisely why Spain sit top of these rankings.

Mikel Oyarzabal has been the reliable edge, his five goals the joint-highest of any player still standing and enough to place him among the tournament's leading marksmen. Around him, Spain's blend of possession and knockout ruthlessness has been the defining identity of a side that were Euro 2024 winners and have looked every inch the team to beat throughout.

A goalless final does nothing to dislodge them from first. If anything, keeping Argentina scoreless underlines the defensive control that has run through their entire campaign. Spain are the most likely 2026 world champions.

Why Argentina are right behind

Argentina are ranked second here because reigning champions with Messi do not need reminding how to win knockout football. Their run has been more fraught than Spain's, but it has also been unbroken. They topped Group J with nine points and a +7 goal difference, the best group record in the tournament alongside Spain's rivals, then negotiated a nervy knockout path with the composure of a side that has been here before.

The margins tell the story. Argentina needed penalties to see off Cape Verde's fairytale after a 1-1 draw in the round of 32, edged Egypt 3-2 in a thriller, drew 1-1 with Switzerland before advancing, and beat England 2-1 in the semi-final. Four ties, four survivals, but rarely in cruise control. That is the difference that keeps them a fraction below Spain in the rankings.

Messi remains the great equaliser. His eight goals are second only to Mbappé's 10, and in a final decided by the finest details, a single moment of his genius could yet settle it. Argentina's experience of winning tight matches, the very trait that carried them in 2022, is exactly why they cannot be discounted at 12% title odds.

A 0-0 final suits neither side's attacking reputation, but for Argentina it keeps alive the dream of back-to-back glory. They are one of only two teams that can win it, and that alone secures their place at number two.

How do the finalists compare on title odds?

The pre-tournament market had Spain and Argentina among the favourites, and the bracket has vindicated those numbers. Spain's 16% was the highest of any nation, and they have delivered a finalist's campaign. Argentina's 12% placed them among the co-favourites, level with France, and they too reached the final.

France and England, the beaten semi-finalists, were also priced as heavyweights at 12% and 10% respectively. Both proved worthy of that billing by reaching the last four, but both fell to the two teams now ahead of them in these rankings. The chart below shows how the four semi-finalists stacked up on title odds, and how neatly the final order has mirrored that hierarchy.

The lesson is that pedigree held. For all the upsets earlier in the knockouts, the two most fancied survivors of the semi-finals are the two contesting the final, a rare case of the market and the football aligning almost perfectly.

The beaten semi-finalists: France and England

France ranked third on talent but exited in the last four. As the world's number one side and 12% co-favourites, they blitzed Group I with nine points and a +8 goal difference, then swept through the early knockouts, 3-0 past Sweden, 2-0 over Morocco in the quarter-final. Kylian Mbappé was imperious, his 10 goals sealing the Golden Boot in a class of his own. But Spain found the answer in the semi-final, winning 2-0, and France's tournament unravelled.

The blow was compounded in the third-place match, an extraordinary 4-6 defeat to England. Ten goals shared in a single game underlined France's attacking firepower and their defensive fragility once the pressure lifted. For all Mbappé's brilliance, France leave with fourth place and a sense of what might have been.

England ranked fourth here, but they finished the tournament on a high. Gareth Southgate's successor Thomas Tuchel guided them to the semi-finals, where they lost 2-1 to Argentina, before that six-goal third-place triumph over France. Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane were central throughout, Bellingham matching Haaland on seven goals and Kane adding six.

Both nations proved they belonged among the elite, and both were undone by the two sides now contesting the final. Their runs are the clearest evidence that Spain and Argentina are a cut above the chasing pack.

Quarter-final dark horses: Norway and Switzerland

Norway rank fifth, and no side did more to electrify the knockouts. Priced at just 2% before a ball was kicked, they finished runners-up in the fearsome Group I, then produced the shock of the tournament by knocking out Brazil 2-1 in the round of 16. Erling Haaland led the charge with seven goals, and only a 1-1 quarter-final defeat to England ended a run that announced Norway as a genuine force.

Switzerland rank sixth, the quiet overachievers. At 1% title odds and FIFA #19, they won Group B, ground out result after result, and reached the quarter-finals via a penalty shootout win over Colombia following a 0-0 draw. Their reward was a 1-1 tie with Argentina, where the reigning champions' quality finally told. A defence-first campaign took them further than almost anyone predicted.

Neither can win it now, but both belong in any honest knockout power ranking because both outperformed their odds so emphatically. Norway's giant-killing and Switzerland's resilience were among the defining stories of a chaotic bracket that saw Brazil, Germany, the Netherlands and hosts Mexico and the United States all fall short.

For the record books, though, the rankings converge on a simple truth: the trophy is going to Spain or Argentina, and Spain are the marginal favourites to claim it.