World Cup 2026 Power Rankings: The Final Two, Ranked

Spain are the team most likely to win World Cup 2026, narrowly ahead of Argentina, after a final that finished 0-0 and was settled on penalties. As the highest-ranked nation left in the draw (FIFA #2) and the pre-tournament favourites at 16% title odds, Spain reached the showpiece as the most complete side of the knockouts, and this power ranking places them first.

Almost every projected challenger fell away before the final. France (FIFA #1), Brazil, Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal were all eliminated, and the trophy came down to two teams: Spain, who beat France 2-0 in the semi-finals, and reigning champions Argentina, who edged England 2-1 in the other last-four tie. With the final level at 0-0, only those two names can be engraved on the trophy.

This power ranking weighs how far each side went, the calibre of the opponents they beat, the margins involved, and underlying pedigree (FIFA ranking and pre-tournament odds). At the business end only two teams could still win it, but the deepest runs still shape the pecking order behind them, from England and France in the last four down to the best of the quarter-finalists.

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Why Spain top the knockout power rankings

Spain sit first because they combined the strongest résumé with the meanest defence in the tournament. They won Group H with seven points and a +5 goal difference, then cut through the bracket with ruthless control: 3-0 against Austria, 1-0 past Portugal, 2-1 over Belgium in the quarter-final and a commanding 2-0 win against France in the semi-final before the goalless final.

The defining number is at the back. Across five knockout ties Spain conceded just one goal, the strike Belgium managed in a 2-1 quarter-final. Shutting out Portugal, France and Argentina in successive knockout rounds is the mark of a side built to win tournament football, and it is why the Euro 2024 winners carried the highest title odds in the field at 16%.

Mikel Oyarzabal has led the line efficiently with five goals, the most of any player still standing after the exits of Kylian Mbappé (10), Jude Bellingham (7) and Harry Kane (6). Spain do not rely on one match-winner; their strength is a settled spine and a midfield that strangles games, exactly the profile that tends to survive a knockout gauntlet.

The one caveat is conversion. A 0-0 final showed that Spain can dominate territory without always finishing the job, and a penalty shootout is the great leveller. Even so, no side left in the draw matched their blend of ranking, odds and defensive record, which is why they head the rankings.

Argentina: the only side who can deny Spain

Argentina are second, and the only team who can still lift the trophy alongside Spain. The reigning champions topped Group J with a perfect nine points and a +7 goal difference, then found a way through a knockout run defined by fine margins rather than dominance.

Lionel Messi has been the difference-maker, his eight goals second only to Mbappé's golden-boot haul and the driving force behind Argentina's every escape. He hauled them past a stubborn Cape Verde side after a 1-1 last-32 tie, then through a breathless 3-2 win over Egypt in the last 16.

The pattern continued deep into the draw: a 1-1 quarter-final with Switzerland settled in Argentina's favour, and a 2-1 semi-final win over England that hinged on the smallest of details. Four knockout ties, three of them decided by a single goal or a shootout, tells you Argentina have ridden their nerve and their captain's brilliance rather than any crushing superiority.

That is the essential contrast with Spain. Where La Roja controlled matches and kept clean sheets, Argentina repeatedly won the tight ones. In a final locked at 0-0 and taken to penalties, that experience of surviving knife-edge knockouts is precisely why they cannot be written off, even from second in these rankings.

How England and France completed the last four

England rank third, the best of the eliminated sides. Gareth's successor Thomas Tuchel guided them to the semi-finals via a 2-1 win over DR Congo, a 3-2 thriller against Mexico and a 1-1 quarter-final with Norway that they came through, before Argentina ended the run 2-1. They then signed off in style, winning a chaotic third-place play-off 6-4 against France.

That play-off scoreline captures England's tournament: thrilling, high-scoring and just short of the summit. Bellingham (7 goals) and Kane (6) gave them as much firepower as anyone, and at 10% pre-tournament title odds they were the fourth-ranked contender. A semi-final exit to the eventual finalists is a respectable ceiling for a side chasing its first World Cup.

France, the world's number one and 12% shots for the title, sit fourth. Mbappé won the Golden Boot outright with 10 goals and Les Bleus swept through with a 3-0 win over Sweden and a 2-0 quarter-final against Morocco. But they hit a wall against Spain, beaten 0-2 in the semi-final, and then lost a wild 6-4 third-place game to England.

For a squad of France's talent, a fourth-place finish will feel like underachievement, undone by a flat semi-final display against the tournament's best defence. Mbappé's individual record could not paper over the collective's failure to break Spain down when it mattered most.

The best of the quarter-finalists

Norway are the standout name among the quarter-finalists and rank fifth overall. Haaland and Ødegaard's side beat Ivory Coast 2-1, then produced the shock of the knockouts by dumping out Brazil 2-1 in the last 16, before falling 1-1 to England in the quarter-final. Haaland's seven goals underline how far Norway's long-awaited return carried them from a FIFA ranking of just #31.

Switzerland (FIFA #19) were the quiet overachievers in sixth. They beat Algeria 2-0, edged Colombia on penalties after a 0-0 last-16 tie, and pushed Argentina all the way to a 1-1 quarter-final before bowing out. A defence-first identity took the Swiss to the last eight on merit rather than reputation.

Belgium and Morocco complete the leading pack. Belgium (3% title odds) recovered from a 2-2 scare against Senegal to thrash the United States 4-1, only to lose 2-1 to Spain in the quarter-final. Morocco, the 2022 semi-finalists at 3.5%, knocked out the Netherlands on penalties and hammered co-hosts Canada 3-0 before France ended their run 2-0.

Ranked by pre-tournament title odds, the gulf between the two finalists and the chasing quarter-finalists is stark, as the chart below shows. Spain and Argentina were always among the most fancied; Norway and Switzerland reached the last eight from the margins of the market.

The full knockout power ranking

Pulling the tournament together, here is the definitive top eight. 1) Spain: finalists, one goal conceded in five knockout ties, the highest-ranked and best-backed side left. 2) Argentina: finalists and reigning champions, carried by Messi's eight goals through a run of one-goal wins. 3) England: semi-finalists and third-place finishers after a 6-4 win over France, with Bellingham and Kane firing.

4) France: fourth place despite Mbappé's 10-goal Golden Boot, undone 0-2 by Spain in the semi-final. 5) Norway: quarter-finalists and giant-killers, having beaten Brazil 2-1. 6) Switzerland: quarter-finalists who took Argentina to 1-1 and knocked out Colombia on penalties. 7) Belgium: quarter-finalists who lost 2-1 to Spain. 8) Morocco: quarter-finalists again, ended 2-0 by France.

The ranking rewards a blend of depth and difficulty. Spain and Argentina separate themselves because they alone survived to the final; England edge France on the head-to-head play-off result and their semi-final run; and the quarter-finalists are ordered by the quality of scalps they claimed, with Norway's win over Brazil the single biggest result outside the semi-finals.

What unites the top four is pedigree: three of the world's top ten and a Euro 2024 winner. What unites the next four is defiance, sides who punched above their FIFA ranking to reach the last eight before the pedigree teams reasserted themselves.

The verdict: what it comes down to now

With the final finishing Spain 0-0 Argentina, the trophy was decided on penalties, and that is where a power ranking meets its limit. A shootout is close to a coin flip, so any verdict on 'who is most likely to win it' is a projection of the two finalists' relative strength going into those kicks, not a prediction of the twelve yards themselves.

On the balance of the whole tournament, Spain are the marginal pick. They ranked higher (FIFA #2 to #3), carried longer odds in their favour (16% to 12%), controlled more of their knockout ties and defended better, conceding once in five rounds against Argentina's habit of trading blows. In open play across the final, that defensive solidity kept a dangerous Argentina attack scoreless.

Argentina's counter-argument is experience and Messi. This is a side that has repeatedly won the tight moments, from Cape Verde to Switzerland to England, and a shootout is the tightest moment of all. If nerve and know-how decide it, the holders are more than capable of retaining their crown.

Either way, the 2026 World Cup delivered a fitting climax: the two best sides of the knockout phase, level after 120 minutes, separated only by penalties. Spain top these power rankings as the team most likely to have won it, but Argentina were never more than a kick behind.