World Cup 2026: Who Is Most Likely to Win It Now

Spain are the team most likely to win World Cup 2026. With the field reduced to its final two, La Roja sit top of our knockout power rankings, and their goalless final against Argentina left the trophy hanging on the finest of margins. Spain carried the tournament's best pre-tournament title odds at 16%, and nothing in a ruthless knockout run suggested that billing was misplaced.

The maths of the last month is unforgiving. Forty-eight teams began the tournament; only Spain and Argentina reached the final, and both did so by surviving a knockout bracket that swallowed Brazil, France, Germany, England and the Netherlands. When the showpiece finished 0-0, it framed a two-horse race that these rankings have tracked since the round of 32.

This piece ranks the deepest-running sides by how likely they were to lift the trophy, weighing form, scoring output and the quality of opponents beaten. Spain lead, Argentina press hard behind them, and a cluster of fallen giants fills out a top tier that tells the story of a chaotic, upset-strewn knockout phase.

Ad

Why Spain top the knockout power rankings

Spain earned the No 1 spot the hard way. After topping Group H with 7 points, La Roja swept through the knockouts with a 3-0 win over Austria, a 1-0 victory against Ronaldo's Portugal, a 2-1 quarter-final over Belgium and, most tellingly, a 2-0 semi-final dismantling of France. Beating the world's top two on the way to a final is the strongest resume in the competition.

The Euro 2024 winners have blended control with a hard edge. Mikel Oyarzabal has been the reliable finisher with 5 goals, and Spain's habit of winning ties without conceding, four clean sheets across their knockout run, is exactly the profile that wins tournaments. Their 16% pre-tournament title odds were the highest of any nation, and they have justified every decimal.

The one caveat is bite in front of goal. The final finished 0-0, and Spain have occasionally had to grind rather than glide. But possession dominance, defensive solidity and the deepest squad in the draw are why they remain the team to beat, and the most likely name on the trophy.

Can Argentina overhaul Spain?

Argentina are the clear No 2 and the only side capable of denying Spain. The reigning champions won Group J with a maximum 9 points and then rode Lionel Messi's brilliance through the bracket, seeing off Cape Verde, Egypt (a 3-2 thriller), Switzerland on the finest of margins and, in the semi-final, England by 2-1.

Messi's 8 goals rank second only to Mbappé's 10, and at this tournament he has been Argentina's difference-maker rather than a passenger. Their 12% pre-tournament title odds placed them among the favourites, and the experience of winning in 2022 makes them uniquely equipped for a final that turns on nerve.

Why do they sit behind Spain? Argentina have lived dangerously, needing a shoot-out to escape Switzerland and conceding more than a champion-elect ideally would. Their route relied on individual moments where Spain's relied on collective control. In a 0-0 final, the smallest edge decides everything, and the rankings give that edge, narrowly, to Spain.

The full knockout power ranking

Behind the two finalists, the rest of the top tier is a roll-call of what might have been. England finished as the tournament's third-best side, beating France 6-4 in a remarkable third-place match after losing their semi-final to Argentina 1-2; Jude Bellingham (7 goals) and Harry Kane (6) gave them firepower, but Argentina's edge in the semi proved decisive.

France sit fourth. Kylian Mbappé won the Golden Boot outright with 10 goals, yet Les Bleus ran into a peak Spain in the last four and lost the third-place match to England. Norway (Erling Haaland, 7 goals) and Switzerland were the quarter-final overachievers: Norway stunned Brazil 2-1 in the last 16, while Switzerland ground their way past Colombia and Algeria before Argentina ended them.

The chart below captures the pre-tournament title odds of the last four, and how closely bunched the elite were. That Spain and Argentina emerged from it, rather than France or England, reflects both quality and the fine margins that defined a knockout phase full of penalties and shocks.

How the final field narrowed

The knockout draw was carnage for the pre-tournament elite. Brazil (11% odds) were dumped out by Norway in the last 16. Germany (8%) went out on penalties to Paraguay in the round of 32, and the Netherlands (6%) suffered the same fate against Morocco. Portugal (7%) fell to Spain, and hosts the United States were thrashed 4-1 by Belgium.

Even the semi-finalists who fell did so to the eventual finalists. Spain removed France; Argentina removed England. There was no soft route to the final, which is precisely why the two survivors deserve their status at the summit of these rankings. Depth, temperament and defensive reliability separated them from a chasing pack of equally talented sides.

The dark horses had their moment too. Cape Verde pushed Argentina all the way in the round of 32, Senegal drew 2-2 with Belgium before going out, and Norway reached the last eight. But none could crack the final barrier, and the last two standing were, fittingly, two of the three highest-rated teams in the entire field.

What decides the title

With the final level at 0-0, the title comes down to the margins these rankings have always emphasised. Spain's advantage is structural: control of possession, a settled defensive shape and a squad that can win ugly. In a game of few chances, the side that makes fewer mistakes usually prevails, and that has been Spain's signature all tournament.

Argentina's counter is star power. Messi remains capable of settling any match with a single moment, and a team that has already conquered the world in 2022 knows how to manage the pressure of a showpiece. If the final turns on an individual flash rather than sustained control, Argentina have the man to provide it.

On balance, the knockout power rankings back Spain. Their 16% pre-tournament odds, their clean-sheet habit and their emphatic dismissal of France give them the strongest all-round case of any side left. Argentina are a whisker behind and cannot be discounted, but if you are asking who is now most likely to win World Cup 2026, the answer is Spain.